At some point during my eventful Saturday I was having a conversation with a young but wise friend of mine. I was having one of those "me against the world" moments as we were having an interesting argument about when best friends get significant others. She claimed to hate when that happened. I pointed out that I couldn't be happier for my friends when they fall in love, but that it does suck when they fall in love and forget about you! We all know that story. You got your best friend. You guys are inseparable. Making jokes and sharing laughs to the point that you have conversations in an almost entirely different language than the rest of society. But then that moment comes along when you feel like you are being replaced. It happens to us all and it sucks! But you can't REALLY be selfish enough to say anything to your friend because if you really do love them, then you truly want what's best for them and you know that eventually things will get back to the way they were. Nevertheless, the argument ended when I told this friend of mine "you win". Her immediate response, "that's because you like to lose". I read the message several times over and realized that she could not be more right. I pointed out to her that she must have been reading the blog, and that I am tired of losing. Again, in her infinite wisdom she said, "then stop wanting to lose". It sounds so simple right? If you don't want to lose, then stop trying to lose and maybe things will turn around. Well guess what fans? TODAY IS THE DAY.....when I will begin my turn around. But it has to start with a few simple rules......
1. Change my definition of gambling
How can you truly win if everything you do is based on a "reckless" principle? You can't! It is just not possible. So with that in mind, instead of being "reckless" I am only going to make wise wagers on things I feel very confident on. I will do my research, and limit my risks to only a few games and one girl at a time. Shit gets overwhelming when you are trying to pick 12 games a day and decide which one of 4 girls you want to spend time with.
2. Stop TRYING to lose.
I am under this strange belief for whatever reason, that if I do not TRY lose, maybe I won't! It sounds so simple and easy, but if you read my last post, it really is quite the challenge. Today is the day, when I turn it around. I have won 3 days in a row, and will continue my streak today. Lastly......
3. Set Firm Goals
Part of the recklessness exists because I go into casinos or bet on games or hang out with girls and never have a definite goal in mind. I will tell myself that I want to win $200. But then once I am actually up $200 I think I am hot and want to keep playing until I lose it all. In order to kick my losing ways to the curb, I will begin to set hard goals and stick to them no matter what!
If I can maintain these three goals, maybe winning ways will come to me like my vision of Shackleford winning the Preakness. Seriously I had a dream before the race that this horse won....and it did, you can ask Handy Cap, he was there. (and no that doesn't mean he was hanging out in bed with me you sickos, we just both made some money off that prediction)....so with this is mind, I bring to you my "Sunday 4 Sure to Score"
In an effort to stay true to form, I will not be picking every game, but rather will make 7 picks each Sunday on bets that I think are just downright Super. They will include teaser bets, parlay bets, reverse bets and straight bets depending on my confidence level in each game. Just so we are clear on the terminology.
Teaser Bet - Let's say your sportsbook is offering up a 2-game, 6-point teaser in the NFL. This means that you can use those 6 points against the spread of both of those two games. So, let's say these are the two NFL games that you've chosen to tease:
Pittsburgh -9 Vs. Oakland
Cleveland +2 1/2 Vs. St. Louis
You are taking Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Now you can take those 6 points and apply them to the point spreads for the Steelers and the Browns. Following this, your new lines would look like this:
Pittsburgh -3
Cleveland +8 1/2
If both teams cover the newly adjusted spread, you win your bet.
Parlay Bets: These are single bets that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or "pushes", the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly.
Reverse Bets: This is the most complicated form of wager, but also the highest payout variety. Yesterday I picked a winning reverse with Alabama (ROLL TIDE) and the Under. The 50 wager won me 200 bucks.
A reverse bet is two or more "If bets" where your action is covered both ways. It's similar to boxing an exacta or lottery numbers.
If you bet a 2 team reverse, you are betting two separate "If bets" as follows:
Bet A - IF - Bet B
and
Bet A - IF - Bet B
Let's say both bets (A and B) are risking $110 to win $100.
If both bets A and B win, the player will win $400 and get back $620 ($400 plus the $220 risked).
If just one bet wins (A or B), the bettor will lose $120 ($110 on the first and $10 on the second) and get back $100.
If both bets lose, the bettor will lose $220.
Again this is the riskiest type of bet, but attracts bettors with the 4 to 1 payout on two wins.
Sunday, September 11th (1PM EST Games)
1. $100 Teaser Tennessee Titans +3 and Arizona Cardinals -7.
This teaser wager will give me the Titans +9.5 and the cardinals -.5 As I will wager $130 to win $100 on this 6.5 point teaser. The reasons here simple. Tennessee is on the road with new to them but proven veteran QB Matt, my brothers wife is super hot, Hassleback and newly motivated running back Chris, I wanna look like Weezy, Johnson. After seeing ALL DAY Adrian Peterson sign his new contract for $96 Million, I believe CJ2K runs extra hard for the first 6 weeks this year and then tries to renegotiate again. I am serious, this guy is an absolute nut job, but one hell of a runner. The Jaguars organization is just plain screwed up right now. They just fired their #1 QB a week before the season and have some guy named McCown starting at QB with a tired and injured maurice Jones Drew. And though we share initials, MJD and I, I am very down on him this year from a fantasy perspective so expect a Titans outright win 26-13. The cardinals -.5 seems too easy. Opening home game against what could be the worst team in football with Scam Newton at the helm? Seriously, I wonder if I went 30 yards away from him and just stood there, could he complete a pass to me? The fact that I eve question that should scare the living hell out of me. With that in mind, I will take Larry Fitzgerald to score twice as Kevin Kolb loves him the way McNabb loved TO after he almost quit. The man crush from Kolb on Fitz is scary. Cardinals win 27-16.
2. $50 Reverse (to win $200) Eagles over 43.5 and SD Chargers - 8.5
The Eagles have a juggernaut offense and sneakily the Rams offense is better than the experts think. I can see the Rams winning this game outright and I would not be surprised as it may take the Eagles a game or two until the "DREAM TEAM" get the right players in the right spots. Up and coming Sam Bradford has potential to be the next Tom Brady. He can make all the throws and has a killer feel for the game. There is a reason he was breaking Peyton Manning rookie QB records last year and I do not believe it was solely because he was forced to throw a lot. S-Jax is getting old and the ram trust Bradford to make plays. Look for a high scoring affair here. I will call it 33-31 Rams on a late field goal after a Vick turnover! O I SAID IT PHILLY FANS! I am also putting the Chargers in here because this is it for them. If ass clown Norv Turner can't get it done this year, I completely write them off. They always start our poorly, but a less than 100% healthy McNabb and who I have money on to win MVP, Philip Rivers, will lead them to a large 34-13 victory. GO CHARGERS! (
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTpbM3-vsI4 - gotta love the gov)
3. $200 Teaser New England Patriots -7 and Detroit Lions +1
WOW. The Lions were once getting 3 points, now it is down to 1. Without injuries happening, NFL spreads NEVER drop by a point let alone 2 points. This should and will normally scare the hell out of me as the public is POUNDING the Lions here. But like Bone Crusher said, I ain't never scurred. I love what the Lions have going on. Aside from the fact that my fantasy teams all own Stafford, Best and Megatron, I am unbiased here. NO I really am not. But you give me this hyped up team with 7.5 points and I think I can stay within a TD for the final. I have Lions with the outright win 27-24. Seriously, if NE loses to Miami, I am going to quit gambling for the rest of the year. I already have an open teaser pending with NE that I tied the Packers to. If they lose this game I will be absolutely stunned. Former Michigan QB Chad Henne is worse than Denard Robinson, and if you watched some of the throws he made last night, despite the AMAZING come from behind victory, you know thats just awful. I think Brandon Marshall will put stats up but that is more a testament to him than anything. Guy is a fucking nut job, but boy can he catch the ball. I say NE in a rout, 38-17.
4. $150 Buffalo Bills +4.5
In Ryan Fitzpatrick I do believe. The guy is a genius and aside from his Ivy League education, he was one of the hottest fantasy QB's going last year for a stretch of 6 weeks. I know this because I had Romo the Homo last year who got injured and forced me into picking up what I thought would be a bum, turned superstar. A revamped defensive line with former Crimson Tide standout Marcell Dareus (i love the name) and I think this team can surprise some people the way Oakland did last year by sweeping their division. There is a 0% chance that Buffalo sweeps up against the Jets, Pats and Fins, but I would not be surprised to see them steal a game from the pats or jets. O I SAID IT. And seriously, aside from Jamaal Charles, the Chefs have absolutely nothing. Cassell has been a bum for 3 years. His numbers lie. He appears decent to the untrained eye, but I was watching game film on him wit Merrill Hodge and the guy plain sucks. Cmon fans, you know I wasn't watching film with Hodgey, it was really me and Jaws! But I say the Jamaal Charles train carries this team to a field goal victory and the bills hang tight in a 23-20 loss. take the bills with the points and laugh to the bank.
IT IS FINALLY UPON US. We have all anxiously been awaiting this day since the Packers beat the Steelers in last years superbowl. I will keep you updated on my fantasy squads and provide a list of my projected top 5 at each position below. See how we make out.
QB: (obviously excluding Brees and Rodgers)
1. Philip Rivers
2. Tom Brady
3. Kevin Kolb
4. Sam Bradford
5. Mike Vick
RB:
1. Jamaal Charles
2. Frank Gore
3. Chris Johnson
4. Felix Jones
5. Jahvid Best
WR:
1. Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson
2. Andre 'ILOVETHEU" Johnson
3. Larry "I make all men jealous because of how ridiculous my body is" Fitzgerald
4. Mario "I wish I was only Manning" ManningHAM (call me crazy but i am expecting BIG things)
5. Mike Wallace He is going to burn Baltimore for a deep one, and maybe 2.
TE:
1. Antonio "If I'm Healthy" Gates
2. Aaron Hernandez
3. Greg "Scam's Security Blanket" Olsen
4. Lance Kendricks - the Eagles LB's are awful
5. Jason Witten
Good luck to everyone and enjoy the days festivities!!! I hope I start winning today, and I promise that I will start this season off right. If you want to make some money, follow my plays! Soon I will have to start charging for them because they are just so damn good.
Mister BetMore is OUT.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2)
Week 1 division rivalry matchups are great and this is arguably the most heated rivalries in all of football. After Hines Ward's alleged DUI this offseason words were exchanged via Twitter between Ravens RB Ray Rice and Steelers Defensive Back Ryan Clark. Basically, they won't be inviting one another over for Thanksgiving Dinner. My guess is Roger Goodell will be handing out a couple of fines after this game is done. On the field though I really like what the Ravens have done by bringing in WR Lee Evans and FB Vonta Leach to help bolster up their offense. My guess is that the Ravens will control the ball on offense and give Big Ben and the Steelers a lot of problems. I like the Ravens to win by a touchdown in this one.
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
The Bucs were a surprise team last year after going 3-13 in 2009 and finishing with a 10-6 record in 2010, narrowly missing the playoffs. Will they be able to build on that uptrend in a very tough NFC South? Is Josh Freeman ready to make the leap to a premier QB? WR Mike Williams has already gone out on the preseason limb to say "We're guaranteeing the playoffs". I like the confidence, but to me this is going to be a feel-out game for both teams where we will learn a lot about what the 2011 season holds. A lot of people like the Lions as their 'sleeper' pick for the upcoming season and I tend to agree. A lot of the tools are there - good QB, great WR, and they have my favorite defensive player DT Ndamukong Suh. In a game this close and with so many questions yet to be answered for both teams, I'll take the Lions with the points.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Chicago Bears
Anyone that knows me, knows that I hate hate hate Jay Cutler. I just don't see it. And last year when he went down with that injury in the second half of the NFC Championship game against the Packers I think his true colors showed. I have no issue with the fact that he was injured, but he looked extremely disinterested as his backup QB tried to will the team back into the game. Anyways, I think that the Bears are primed for a down year and with LB Lance Briggs asking to be traded a week before the season it just doesn't seem like this is a team that is ready to gel and win football games. Give me the Falcons on the road.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
I'm a Bills Fan. I know that cheering for your team and investing money don't align because emotions are too high. That being said - I do think that the Bills have a puncher's (boxing pun?) chance at going .500 for the season. There are definitely holes on the team and management has been terrible the past few years, but I think they finally got it right when they drafted DT Marcell Dareus from Alabama. I also think that the Chiefs are wildly over rated. With QB Matt Cassell'sstatus uncertain, I'll gladly take the Bills plus the points in this one.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (-9)
Peyton Manning will not be playing. The Indianapolis Colts are probably a 5 win team without him. With or without Arian Foster I think that the Texans will be too much for the Colts to handle. Their defense will be stronger with the addition of LB DeMeco Ryans (back from injury) and CBJonathan Joseph (Signed in Free Agency). No Way the Texans lose this game at home against a Manning-less Colts team. Take the Texans and lay the points.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
Having gone to school in Philadelphia, I have this anti-Philly sports complex that has been growing in me the past few years. It started with the Eagles. Year after year, the Eagles would get to the NFC Championship game - they would fail to reach the Superbowl and then I was left to hear everyone talk about how good the Eagles could have been if X player would have done this or that. Well this year expectations for the Eagles are even higher with the signing of All Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha and trade for CB Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie. The city is abuzz with talks of the "Dream Team" and ESPN The Magazine even picked the Eagles to win the Superbowl over the Steelers. I don't think they will win their division let alone the Superbowl. That being said - I don't think the Rams will provide much of an obstacle in week 1 for the Eagles, but I don't think the ride will be as smooth as people think. Take the Eagles on the road, but remember to mitigate expectations.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Really have nothing to say here - I'm surprised the Browns could be favored by this much over any team in the NFL. The Bengals must really blow. I do know that Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden so with that information alone I'll take the Bengals plus the points.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Another game I will likely care very little about, unless somehow Gus Johnson is involved. The Jags just announced that they released starting QB David Garrard 5 days before the start of the season. That's probably not a good sign. With RB Chris Johnson back in camp and expected to start I think the Titans will actually show some sign of life when they have the ball in their possession. Take the Titans and the points and try to stay away from this game on TV.
New York Giants (-3) vs. Washington Redskins
Another solid Division matchup in week 1. I expect both teams to have a tough time competing in the NFC East this year. The Giants hellish preseason is finally over, I just don't think they will have enough bodies to compete throughout the year. The Redskins finished 6-10 last year and showed very little promise. I think that Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be too much for the Redskins to fend off. Take the Giants to roll in this division matchup.
(4PM EST Games)
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Scam Newton makes his first start! I actually like Cam Newton to win offensive rookie of the year. Which is not saying much considering the other quarterbacks in his draft class will be sitting behind proven veterans (McNabb, Hassellbeck, and Luke McCown). The Cardinals made the trade that their organization knew it needed to make. Bring in a QB that can throw the football. Kevin Kolbhas very little experience as the head signal caller - but anything after last years abysmal roulette of QB's in Arizona is an upgrade. I think the Cardinals over paid for Kolb, but as long as you can keep Larry Fitzgerald happy you're doing something right. Lay the points and take the Cardinalsto win at home.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
It actually pains me to think about the NFC West. Did the Seahawks really win a playoff game last year against the New Orleans Saints? Not sure how that happens - but I think they will be much worse than last year. Tavaris Jackson is not going to be the answer for this franchise and while the signing of WR Sidney Rice may look good on paper - he'll likely face a similar situation that Fitzgerald dealt with last year in Arizona. The 49ers are nothing special either, but I do think they have enough talent to at least compete in the very weak NFC West. LB Patrick Willis has long been one of my favorite players to watch on the defensive side of the ball, basically because he goes into beast mode. For the game take the 49ers and if you want to be cute try taking them for your survivor pools because this might be one of the last times they are a favorite in the eyes of Vegas.
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Diego Chargers (-8.5)
I like this match up a lot. The Chargers play a brand of football that I have long been a fan of. Last year they were able to have the number 1 total Offense, and the number 1 total Defense - but still managed to miss the playoffs because of their horrific special teams play. The Chargers will put up points in a hurry and the Vikings will try to keep up in what should be a high scoring affair. I'm expecting big Fantasy numbers for players on both teams. I do expect McNabb and AP to keep it close, so I'd play the Vikings in this one even though San Diego will still come out on top.
Sunday Night Football - 8:25PM EST Start
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (-4)
Great way to cap what should be a dizzying day of fantasy stats, beer, and food. The Ryan Brothers (Rex and another fat one) going at it in week 1. There is a lot of hype around both teams going into this season and as I've mentioned before I think the Cowboys will live up to that hype this year with new head coach Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have so many threats on offense, I just don't see how the Jets will be able to contain them. I'm curious to see whether CB Darrelle Revis will blanket Miles Austin or Dez Bryant - but whoever draws Antonio Cromartie will likely put up big numbers. Take the Cowboys plus the points in this one.
Monday Night Football - 9/12
New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Patriots are a good football organization. The Dolphins are not a good football organization. How can the Dolphins openly try to lure another coach in the offseason and then once that coach (Jim Harbaugh, 49ers) elects to take his talents elsewhere pretend like everything is fine and dandy with coach Tony Sparano. That's not good business at any level. I think the Dolphins actually have some talented players on this team - but with a lack of leadership at Head Coach and an unproven QB in Chad Henne there's no way that I see the Dolphins stepping on the same field as the Pats. Lay the touchdown and take the Patriots in week 1.
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-3)
I actually have the Broncos as one of my sleeper teams for this year. At 4-12 last year, I expect them to finish second in the AFC West led by the trio of QB Kyle Orton, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR Brandon Lloyd. I have very little faith in anything that the Raiders have done in the last 15 years and while they may be able to compete in a relay race I doubt they can put it together on the football field. I'm sure that by the time this game comes around I will be all Football'd out for the week but give me the Broncos in this one and thank God we have our favorite sport back.
Feel free to add comments or thoughts below
Season Record: 0-0-0